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Putin's Succession Politics: Navigating the Post-Putin Era
Russian President Vladimir Putin, a dominant figure in global politics, is widely expected to secure a fifth term in office in the upcoming nationwide vote. His re-election would mark a full third decade as Russia's paramount leader, but it also sheds light on an uncomfortable truth: Putin and his inner circle have not visibly prepared for a post-Putin era.
The Looming Succession Challenge
While constitutional changes in 2020 extended Putin's potential rule until 2036, the absence of a clear successor raises concerns about Russia's political stability. The system built over the past two decades under Putin's rule appears robust, but it remains brittle, gerontocratic, and vulnerable to shocks. Here are some key aspects of Putin's succession challenge:
1. Age and Health: At 71 years old, Putin is a decade younger than US President Joe Biden. Although he seems healthy, rumors about his health persist. The recent armed insurrection by Wagner mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin and unfounded health rumors highlight the need for a succession plan.
2. Potential Candidates
Dmitry Medvedev: Once Putin's successor-in-waiting, Medvedev served as president from 2008 to 2012. His lack of ambition made him a comfortable placeholder, but he remains a Kremlin ally.
Sergei Ivanov: Another trusted ally, Ivanov could be a viable candidate. Putin may opt for a choice between these two loyalists⁵.
3. Family Dynamics: Unlike some historical dictators, Putin's family is not in the running for succession. His personal life remains secretive, with little known about his relationship with his daughters or ex-wife.
The Uncertain Future
As Putin faces geopolitical challenges and potential health issues, Russia's future leadership remains uncertain. The Kremlin denies rumors, but the possibility of a power vacuum looms. Whether Putin grooms a successor or not, the post-Putin era will shape Russia's destiny, and the world watches closely.
In this delicate transition, Russia must navigate its path forward, ensuring stability, continuity, and effective governance. The legacy of Putin's rule hangs in the balance, and the world awaits the next chapter
in Russian politics.
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